Paula Aleksandrowicz

• This study examines the institutional and organisational determinants of the early exit trend in Germany and Poland and future prospects thereof. It adopts a diachronic time frame (from the 1970s till present) and analyses legislative changes in the field of pension and labour market policy (macro level), changes of individual retirement preferences (micro level) and changes of firm policies with regard to older workers (micro level). The applied methods are qualitative case studies in 31 German and Polish establishments, analysis of policy documents and scholarly literature and secondary analysis of official statistical data. The results confirm theories which combine rational choice and institutional approaches, as proposed by Mayntz/Scharpf (1995) or Windhoff-Héritier (1991). In particular, firms (and individual workers) slowly adapt to opportunities and restrictions, as well as to normative expectations, set by institutions (e.g. the raised retirement age). However, structural determinants like the situation on the sales and labour market, rationalisation processes and ownership transformations clearly influence when and which adaptation patterns will be adopted. The cross-national comparison has revealed that differences between Polish and German firms with regard to the effect their personnel policy has on the integration, resp. externalisation of older workers exceed branch similarities across both countries. That can be explained with the country-specific national and sectoral institutions which create restrictions and opportunities for firm behaviour, and with socio-economic constraints. With regard to institutional determinants of early exit, Germany is better positioned than Poland and is more likely to further raise the employment rate of older workers.