Modelling plankton dynamics and community compositions in temperate lakes
- In recent years, lakes have faced rising pressure from anthropogenic activities and climate warming, and the aquatic communities of some lake ecosystems are reshaping in ways that can form harmful algal blooms. It is crucial to understand how lake phytoplankton communities respond to environmental stressors under varying environmental conditions. The cell size of phytoplankton has multiple important implications for the dynamics, diversity, and productivity of a phytoplankton community. Empirical investigations in lakes showed that the size composition of phytoplankton communities differs with inorganic nutrient conditions, grazing pressure (usually quantified by zooplankton abundance), and water temperature. However, it is not clear how these three factors interact to shape the size composition of lake phytoplankton. In this thesis, I use size-based plankton modelling to elucidate how a trade-off mechanism, dependent on inorganic nutrient availabilities and zooplankton size-specific grazing strategies, shapes the dynamics, the size composition, and the exclusion pattern of phytoplankton in a generic temperate lake. Lastly, I recast the model to a specific Swiss lake, Greifensee, by using high-frequency data comprising phytoplankton cell size (biovolume) and plankton abundances. In summary, this thesis investigates the interactive effects of inorganic nutrient regimes and zooplankton grazing strategies on the community dynamics and compositions of lake phytoplankton and offers a glimpse into the future size compositions of phytoplankton and nutrient and plankton dynamics of Greifensee. The results not only advance our understanding of plankton communities in temperate lakes, but they also identify hypotheses related to zooplankton grazing strategies that can be further tested experimentally. The data-driven modelling approach presented here can contribute to strategic conservation and management plans for mitigating the effects of ongoing environmental change.